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Saturday, 9 February 2019

Stats show Spurs performing better than expected


Stats Show Spurs Performing Better Than Expected


Expected goals is a statistic that many bettors on football use nowadays so I thought a look at them might be revealing.

"Expected goals" is a metric which assesses every chance, essentially answering the question of whether a player should have scored from a certain opportunity. Put simply, it is a way of assigning a "quality" value (xG) to every attempt based on what we know about it.

To work out a team's “expected goals” (xG) for a match, every shot must be analysed and assigned an "Expected goal value" (EGV).

EGV is the probability that any given shot will end up as a goal.

The Top 6 are all scoring more goals than expected.

Liverpool expected goals 54.98 actual goals 59 difference +4.02
Manchester City expected goals 63.74 actual goals 68 difference +4.26
Tottenham expected goals 44.25 actual goals 51 difference +6,75
Man Utd expected goals 48.66 actual goals 52 difference +3.34
Chelsea expected goals 43.42 actual goals 45 difference +1,58
Arsenal expected goals 42.45 actual goals 53 difference +10.55

We have had injuries, more than anyone else and our strikers have been missing but we are still scoring more goals than we are expected to score and we are performing better than 4 of the top 6.

The same metric can be used for goals sides are expected to concede so let's have a look at those.

Liverpool expected goals conceded 20.56 actual goals conceded 15 difference +5.56
Manchester City expected goals conceded 19.94 actual goals conceded 20 difference -0.06
Tottenham expected goals conceded 29.95 actual goals conceded 24 difference +4.95
Man United expected goals conceded 37.81 actual goals conceded 35 difference +2.81
Chelsea expected goals conceded 23.46 actual goals conceded 23 difference +0,46
Arsenal expected goals conceded 35.99 actual goals conceded 37 difference -1.01

So Liverpool are the only side conceding less goals than expected than ourselves, which given our injuries and plenty of central midfielders missing and the blooding of Oliver Skipp is an excellent achievement.

Expected points - Actual Points - Difference
Liverpool 57.61 - 65 - +7.39
Man City 60.48 - 62 - +1.52
Tottenham 45.15 - 57 - +11.85
Man United 42.02 - 51 - +8.98
Chelsea 48.95 - 50 - +1.05
Arsenal 40.47 - 50 - +9.53

Too many of our fans put us down and these statistics suggest we are performing better than expected.

I understand that. It is difficult for fans to let go of the past but a coach has to forget that, He has to concentrate on the now and the future.

Ours is doing that admirably.



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