Arsenal vs Spurs
3 min read
The Saturday lunchtime kick-off sees the 192nd North London Derby (NLD), a fierce rivalry after Arsenal invaded our turf by relocating from South London in 1913.
In recent years away wins have been hard to come by, Tottenham haven't won at the Emirates since 2010 (W4 L7) so the game is due a draw.
Spurs haven't won away in this fixture in 16 attempts, the longest in NLD history.
Conte's record is D1 L4 so he will have to buck a trend too but will be pleased that Harry Kane, Heung-min Son and Richarlison all scored during the international break.
Harry Kane is the highest goalscorer in the fixture, 13 goals, while Gabriel Jesus has not lost when he has scored in 61 games (W59 L2).
Before you read on you might like to catch up with the last article (opens in a new window) which explains the 5 channels and the 6 zones on a football field, giving a greater grasp of what Spurs are trying to achieve, particularly when defending.
FURTHER READING
A discussion on the 6 zones that help you to understand each player's role & Conte's system better.
Arsenal Style
Arsenal play with the second highest defensive line in the Premier League and have a £50m centre-back (Ben White) now playing as a right-back.They are a team you can play the ball in behind for a runner, like Heung-min Son or maybe Richarlison.
Spurs will draw them on and counter of course as well as offering a crossing threat, more about that later.
I don't know whether you have noticed but Son drops to the centre circle in our half to flick the ball forward as an alternative to Harry Kane dropping, which obviously teams look out for very much now, given his passing range.
The Statistics Angle
The Tottenham xT (expected Threat).
You can see immediately by looking at the final column the crossing threat of both sides is markedly different.
Add the Arsenal wing threat together (last column) and it totals 0.12 which is the threat Dejan Kulusevski carries on his own.
Spurs total 0.45 so with 7 headed goals so far in just 7 league games, the most in the Premier League followed by Liverpool, Fulham and Arsenal all on 4, you can see a headed goal is on the cards in this game.
The xT of the top 10 Spurs outfield players is 1.37
The xT of the top 10 Arsenal outfield players is 1.35
Two contrasting styles, one possession-based, one defensive control and counter-attacking-based.
My previous post explains the defensive control, the zones where Spurs push opponents to and thus the defensive role of everyone.
It is high-pressure games like these where mental discipline come to the fore. Spurs are growing in that regard but have a way to go yet.
The players have all been away on international duty and will have to mentally switch back to Conte's system, which is reliant on each cog doing its job, hence why you can't just throw someone in and give them a run of games to adjust.
They have to make that adjustment in training and prove in training they deserve a starting spot.
This, 'he wasn't given a run of games' nonsense is simply a failure mentality excuse.
A tight affair where we will need our front three to produce.
Fingers crossed.
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COYS
FURTHER READING
A discussion on zones helps you to understand each player's role & Conte's system better.
An article that talks about Lloris, Sánchez, Conte and talks about xT (expected Threat), expected crossing threat and figures showing the expected threat from each player.
Discusses the Sporting and Leicester City games but also contains the adjusted Premier League table for the expected Top 6 taking into account the strength of the opposition played.
This article asks Is VAR just a marketing tool and looks at the tactics of Marseilles head coach Igor Tudor.
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