News with views from the No1 Spurs website

Wednesday, 6 January 2016

Alderweireld value £21.4m, Lamela £23.84m

Fans everywhere argue about the perceived transfer value of a player, few actually take into account the length of a players contract when decided, incorrectly assuming that a player is always worth his full value, they aren't.

When a player is entering the last year of his contract he is worth significantly less than if he has two or three years left. It is for that reason that cubs target players coming up to this point and why clubs like Tottenham negotiate new contract when a player has at least two years left on his existing deal.

Saido Berahino is a prime example. Last summer he was worth full market value, now he has 18 months left he value has decreased and in the summer he will be entering the final year of his existing contract so his transfer value will be about half his perceived true value. Aaron Lennon went to Everton who waited until the end of the window to pick him up as cheap as they could, in the end £4.2-million (US$6.15m - AUS$8.68m - €5.731m) when we were talking £10-million (US$14.64m - AUS$20.67m - €13.63m).

For a bit of fun you can get your statistics ready and feed then into a CIES Football Observatory Calculator to produce a value for each player. Seven Tottenham players have already been done for you in the list they produce and even if you don't want to go to the trouble of calculating the remainder, a look will show you how the existing ones are calculated.

It would be interesting to see all players put through the calculator when talking of transfer stories to see a comparison price with others instead of the inflated figures that get bandied about. 

The are plenty of stories out about Tottenham target Axel Witsel. Just this today some quote a figure of £23-million (US$33.67m - AUS$47.48m - €31.36m), while others quote a figure of £30-million (US$43.92m - AUS$61.95m - €40.9m). Nobody actually knows the figure Zenit would settle on if they were to sell him and he is desperate to leave, has been for over a year now.

Toby Alderweireld signed this summer and his contract situation, as much as his performances see him have a CIES Football Observatory valuation of £21.40-million (US$31.45m - AUS$44.41m - €29.3m), significantly more than what we paid for him. He also illustrates why we don't bring in loan players and develop them for someone else's benefit, he isn't much use to Southampton now, we are getting the benefit for them developing him for us.

Erik Lamela took two seasons and a change of manager to get his head right, the result of his new approach is that his value has started to climb again. There is no doubt that we paid far too much for him but these latest valuations now rate him as just over his original fee. 

The £23.84-million (US$25.60m - AUS$36.14m - 32.5m) suggests we would only get what we paid, which is not the object of transfer business. Most players, while helping the side, are brought by clubs with increased future valuation in mind, thus helping a club stay financially viable.

Like it or not, football is a business and it is idealistic to suppose football results are the only criteria used, they aren't, the transfer market is a very complex business.

CIES Football Observatory Valuations
Harry Kane              £66.98-million (US$71.89m - AUS$101.53 - 91.3m)
Christian Eriksen      £34.62-million (US$37.16m - AUS$52.48m - 47.2m)
Son Heung-min        £25.97-million (US$27.88m - AUS$39.97m - 35.4m)
Dele Alli                  £25.38-million (US$27.75m - AUS$38.47m - 34.6m)
Eric Dier                 £25.09-million (US$26.93m - AUS$38.02m - 34.2m)
Erik Lamela            £23.84-million (US$25.60m - AUS$36.14m - 32.5m)
Toby Alderweireld   £21.40-million (US$31.45m - AUS$44.41m - €29.3m)

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