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Thursday, 26 November 2015

Score 1 or less and Spurs don't win

The essential statistics for anyone considering a bet on the game tonight.

Qarabag to win 28%, Tottenham to win 47%, draw 25%
Both teams to score 53%
Qarabag to score first 44%, Tottenham to score first 51%, no score 5%
Qarabag have scored first in 2 (40%) of their last 5 European home games, conceding first in 1 (20%) of them.
Spurs have scored the first goal in 9 (45%) of the last 20 European away games, conceding first in 7 (35%) of them.
Game to have 3 goals or more 50%
Last 5 Qarabag European home games have produced on average 1.2 goals
Qarabag have scored on average 0.6 goals in the last 5 European home games and conceded 0.6 goals.
Qarabag have scored in 40% of their last 5 European home games and conceded in 60%.
Qarabag have scored 67% from open play and 33% from set-pieces in their last 5 European home games.
The last 20 Tottenham European away games have produced on average 2.3 goals.
Tottenham have not kept a clean sheet in the last 5 away games in Europe.
Tottenham have scored at least 1 goal in 70% of the last 20 European away games and conceded in 65%.
Tottenham have scored on average 1.3 goals in the last 20 European away games and conceded 1.0 goals.
Tottenham have scored 77% from open play and 18% from set-pieces in our last 20 European away games.
Tottenham have not won a game in the last 20 European away games where we have only scored 1 goal or less (12 games - Drawn 6, Lost 6)
Qarabag have conceded 1 goal or less in 4 of their 5 European home games.

First goalscorer: Qarabag midfielder 22%, forward 22%, Tottenham midfielder 27%, forward 19%, defender 5%
Qarabag have conceded 3 (100%) goals to forwards in the last 5 European home games.
Tottenham have conceded 10 goals to forwards, 4 to midfielders and 3 to defenders in the last 20 European away games.

Tottenham goalscorers (last 20 away European games)
Chadli 3 (Benfica, Benfica, Anzhi)
Dempsey 2 (Basel, Basel)
Dembele 2 (Tromso, Lyon)
Kane 2 (Asteras Tripolis, Shamrock Rovers)
Townsend 2 (Asteras Tripolis, Shamrock Rovers)
Vertonghen 1 (Sheriff)
Adebayor 1 (Inter Milan)
Eriksen 1 (Anderlecht)
Lamela 1 (Monaco)

Predicted score percentages
Home win 28%
1-0 8%
2-0 4%
2-1 7%
3-1 3%
Other Qarabag win score 6%
Draw 25%
0-0 7%
1-1 12%
Other draw score 6%
Away win 47%
0-1 11%
0-2 8%
1-2 9%
0-3 4%
1-3 5%
2-3 3%
Other Tottenham win score 7%

There is a 33% chance Qarabag will not score, a 37% chance Qarabag will score 1 goal, a 20% chance Qarabag will score 2 goals, a 7% chance Qarabag will score 3 goals and a 4% chance Qarabag will score 4 or more.

There is a 22% chance Tottenham will not score, a 33% chance Tottenham will score 1 goal, a 25% chance Tottenham will score 2 goals, a 13% chance Tottenham will score 3 goals and a 6% chance Tottenham will score 4 or more.

The figures edge towards a Tottenham win, possibly 1-0 with a midfielder scoring, but they are not hugely decisive given our poor European away record where we have only scored 1 goal or less in 12 away games out of the last 20 and not won any of them. We seem so often to play not to lose rather than to win, not very successfully.

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Chances created and conceded, where do Spurs sit in the table?
VIDEO: Lloris full individual highlights vs West Ham
VIDEO: Full Kane individual performance vs West Ham

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